Chapter 3. Consideration and assessment of navigational risks to improve energy-efficient ship management

Some issues of increasing the energy efficiency of ships by improving navigation methods

The section reveals the relationship between energy efficiency of shipping and navigational safety, which is of particular relevance in the context of the implementation of strict international environmental regulations (EEDI, EEXI, CII) and the growing requirements for optimizing fuel consumption. It is determined that classical methods of energy saving, in particular, reducing the speed, cannot be considered in isolation from the risks associated with the operation of a ship in difficult navigational conditions − narrow straits, areas of high traffic or unstable hydrometeorology.

The aim of the study is to develop an integrated approach to ship management that simultaneously takes into account energy efficiency and navigation risks. For the first time, the expediency of using multi-criteria routing models based on fuel consumption, accident risk, and current hydrometeorological conditions is substantiated. The article presents decision-making algorithms taking into account navigation safety constraints, which allow to adapt management actions in real time.

IMO requirements for fleet energy efficiency are outlined, as well as ways to implement them both technically and operationally. The role of digital solutions, including ECDIS, DSS, NAPA, StormGeo, Wärtsilä Voyage platforms, which support the crew in making informed decisions during the voyage, is emphasized. Particular attention is paid to the use of artificial intelligence methods for risk forecasting based on large amounts of data.

The article systemizes the classification of navigation risks (technical, human, digital, environmental), as well as methods of their assessment: qualitative (FMEA, SWOT, HAZID) and quantitative (ETA, FTA, risk matrices). The article considers the formation of an integrated hazard map, which includes trajectory points of the ship's route, maneuvering characteristics, weather forecasts, the state of equipment and crew training. It is shown that the combination of digital platforms, mathematical modelling and engineering analysis ensures informed decision-making.

An approach to building a decision support system is proposed, taking into account changes in the external environment, technical characteristics of the vessel and the level of navigation threat. The effectiveness of digital routing based on multicriteria analysis for simultaneously achieving safety and fuel efficiency is proved. The importance of the ISO 31000:2018 standard for the formation of adaptive risk management systems in maritime transport is emphasized.

The results obtained have significant scientific and applied potential. They can be used in the practice of ship-owning companies, dispatch centers, maritime administrations, as well as in the process of crew training. Priority areas for further research include improving risk forecasting models, harmonizing international standards with the specifics of the Ukrainian fleet, and implementing unified information and analytical decision support systems.